Archive for October, 2008

Stocks Decline as Earnings Reveal Fallout of Credit Crisis

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2008
Published: October 21, 2008
Worries about the corporate sector sent stocks on Wall Street lower again on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones industrials dropping more than 400 points before recovering slightly. Improvements in the credit markets — including the third straight day of declines in bank borrowing rates — did little to placate stock investors who are eying the corporate consequences of an economy that many economists believe is already in a recession. Earnings reports have been weak this week, and many companies have warned about lower sales and a bleak outlook for the remainder of the year. The problems have appeared in a range of industries. The aviation giant Boeing saw profits fall 38 percent last quarter. Merck, the pharmaceutical company, posted a 28 percent drop in net income and will cut jobs. The North Carolina-based bank Wachovia, which was recently acquired by Wells Fargo, suffered a $23.7 billion net loss. At noon, the broad Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 3.2 percent. The Nasdaq composite index was off about 1.9 percent, despite gains in shares of Apple and Yahoo. The Dow, after falling more than 200 points on Tuesday, was off 284.59, at 8,749.07, with 29 of the 30 components of the index in retreat. Oil prices hit a low for the year, falling below $68 a barrel. The cost at which bank lends to one another, as measured by the key Libor rate, fell again for 3-month and overnight loans. The market jitters began earlier overseas. In late afternoon trading, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index, a barometer of euro zone blue chips, was down 5.4 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in London lost 4.5 percent. The CAC-40 in Paris was off 5.1 percent and the DAX in Frankfurt slipped 4.5 percent. In Tokyo, the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average plunged 6.8 percent after three days of gains as the yen surged. NEC Electronics plummeted about 20 percent. The electronics company shocked investors by slashing its annual operating profit forecast by 90 percent to 1 billion yen, or $10 million, citing weak demand. In Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 closed 3.4 percent lower. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed more than 5 percent lower, as Citic Pacific fell 24 percent. The company this week predicted a trading loss of up to $2 billion caused by what it said were unauthorized bets on foreign exchange markets. “The main story is that deleveraging among financial institutions is continuing,” Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, said. “Banks worried about funding are selling assets to reduce their balance sheets.” The wave of coordinated global bailouts has helped banks’ capital ratios, he noted, but there is a painful readjustment under way that will require some time to work through. The dollar soared against European currencies. The euro fell to $1.2858, its lowest since November 2006, from $1.3063 late Tuesday in New York. The dollar rose to 1.1665 Swiss francs from 1.1512 francs. Expectations that European central bankers will cut interest rates to stimulate growth has reduced the incentive for investors to buy short-term assets based in those currencies. In Britain, the pound fell to $1.6260 from $1.6707, after the Bank of England governor, Mervyn King, warned that the British currency could come under pressure, and acknowledged that the country had entered what could be a painful recession. “Taken together, the combination of a squeeze on real take-home pay and a decline in the availability of credit poses the risk of a sharp and prolonged slowdown in domestic demand,” Mr. King said Tuesday in Leeds, England. But the yen trumped all other currencies. The dollar fell to 99.27 yen from 100.13, while the euro fell to 127.69 from 131.58. Mr. Halpenny said the yen was benefiting from its position as a safe-haven currency, supported by the fact that Japan is running a large current-account surplus. United States crude oil futures for December delivery fell $3.22, or 4.5 percent, to $68.96 a barrel.
David Jolly and Bettina Wassener contributed reporting.
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Paulson Says Banks Must Deploy Capital

Tuesday, October 14th, 2008
Paulson Says Banks Must Deploy Capital
Matthew Cavanaugh/European Pressphoto Agency

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., speaking in Washington on Tuesday morning, described the government’s bailout as “extensive, powerful and transformative.”


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Published: October 14, 2008
WASHINGTON — Describing the government’s financial bailout plan as “extensive, powerful and transformative,” Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said Tuesday that the injection of $250 billion into the nation’s banks was needed to restore confidence and avoid a collapse of the financial system.
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Doug Mills/The New York Times

“This is an essential short-term measure to ensure the viability of the American banking system,” President Bush said from the Rose Garden on Tuesday morning.

Speaking shortly after President Bush used similar terms to describe the proposal, Mr. Paulson said the Treasury would make $250 billion available to banks to help recapitalize those banks and to get them lending again, among themselves and to businesses and consumers. “The needs of our economy require that our financial institutions not take this new capital to hoard it, but to deploy it,” Mr. Paulson said, who offered some details of the plan along with the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Sheila C. Bair. With the proposal, the United States follows similar plans announced Monday across Europe — almost all intended to inject money into the banks and unfreeze the credit markets. Markets around the world have rebounded on news of the coordinated efforts. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 936 points, or 11 percent on Monday, the largest single-day gain in the American stock market since the 1930s, and gained more than 300 points more in the opening minutes of trading on Tuesday. European markets were up at least 5 percent on Tuesday after rising nearing 10 percent Monday. In addition to injecting money into the banks, according to the plan, the United States would also guarantee new debt issued by banks for three years — a measure meant to encourage the banks to resume lending to one another and to customers. The F.D.I.C. would also offer an unlimited guarantee on bank deposits in accounts that do not bear interest — typically those of businesses — bringing the United States in line with several European countries, which have adopted such blanket guarantees. And the Federal Reserve would start a program to become the buyer of last resort for commercial paper, a move intended to help businesses get the money they need for day-to-day operations. Calling the need to inject money into banks regrettably, Mr. Paulson said it was nevertheless necessary. “The alternative of leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable,” Mr. Paulson said. “When financing isn’t available, consumers and businesses shrink their spending, which leads to businesses cutting jobs and even closing up shop.” Mr. Bernanke, echoing Mr. Paulson’s comments, said, “Americans can be confident that every resource is being brought to bear,” including political leadership. “I strongly believe” that the application of the measures together with resilience of American economy “will help restore confidence,” Mr. Bernanke said.   As the White House has done since the House of Representatives rejected the initial bailout legislation, Mr. Bush sought to assure Americans that the efforts were necessary to protect their savings and retirement. Each of the programs protects taxpayers, Mr. Bush said, and was “limited and temporary.” “I recognize that the action leaders are taking here in Washington and in European capitals can seem distant from those concerns,” he said. “But these efforts are designed to directly benefit the American people by stabilizing our overall financial system and helping our economy recover.” Mr. Paulson outlined the plan to eight of the nation’s leading bankers at a meeting Monday afternoon. He essentially told the participants that they would have to accept government investment for the good of the American financial system, according to officials. On Monday, big banks agreed to take investments totaling about $125 billion. Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase will receive $25 billion each. Bank of America, which is acquiring Merrill Lynch, and Wells Fargo, which is acquiring the Wachovia Corporation, will receive $25 billion. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will receive $10 billion each. And Bank of New York Mellon and State Street will get $2 billion to $3 billion. Another $125 billion is allocated for thousands of small and midsize banks. They will be eligible for government investments reflecting a similar proportion of their assets. On Tuesday, Mr. Paulson said that in return for the investment, the government would receive preferred shares and warrants for common stock. In addition, he said, the government would expect a reasonable return. And he said, “Institutions that sell shares to the government will accept restrictions on executive compensation, including a clawback provision and a ban on golden parachutes during the period that Treasury holds equity issued through this program.” Over the weekend, central banks flooded the system with billions of dollars in liquidity, throwing out the traditional financial playbook in favor of a series of moves that officials hoped would get banks lending again. European countries — including Britain, France, Germany and Spain — announced aggressive plans to guarantee bank debt, take ownership stakes in banks or prop up ailing companies with billions in taxpayer funds.
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Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. at the White House on Monday evening.

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Brendan Smialowski for The New York Times

After meetings: John Mack, left, of Morgan Stanley, and Vikram Pandit of Citigroup.

The Treasury’s plan would help the United States catch up to Europe in what has become a footrace between countries to reassure investors that their banks will not default or that other countries will not one-up their rescue plans and, in so doing, siphon off bank deposits or investment capital. “The Europeans not only provided a blueprint, but forced our hand,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard and an adviser to John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee. “We’re trying to prevent wholesale carnage in the financial system.” In the process, Mr. Rogoff and other experts said, the government is remaking the financial landscape in ways that would have been unimaginable a few weeks ago — taking stakes in the industry and making Washington the ultimate guarantor for banking in the United States. But the pace of the crisis has driven events, and fissures in places as far-flung as Iceland, which suffered a wholesale collapse of its banks, persuaded officials to act far more decisively than they had previously. “Over the weekend, I thought it could come out very badly,” said Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. “But we stepped back from the cliff.” The guarantee on bank debt is similar to one announced by several European countries earlier on Monday, and is meant to unlock the lending market between banks. Banks have curtailed such lending — considered crucial to the smooth running of the financial system and the broader economy — because they fear they will not be repaid if a bank borrower runs into trouble. But officials said they hoped the guarantee on new senior debt would have an even broader effect than an interbank lending guarantee because it should also stimulate lending to businesses. Another part of the government’s remedy is to extend the federal deposit insurance to cover all small-business deposits. Federal regulators recently have been noticing that small-business customers, which tend to carry balances over the federal insurance limits, had been withdrawing their money from weaker banks and moving it to bigger, more stable banks. Congress had already raised the F.D.I.C.’s deposit insurance limit to $250,000 earlier this month, extending coverage to roughly 68 percent of small-business deposits, according to estimates by Oliver Wyman, a financial services consulting firm. The new rules would cover the remaining 32 percent. “Imposing unlimited deposit insurance doesn’t fix the underlying problem, but it does reduce the threat of overnight failures,” said Jaret Seiberg, a financial services policy analyst at the Stanford Group in Washington. “If you reduce the threat of overnight failures,” Mr. Seiberg said, “you start to encourage lending to each other overnight, which starts to restore the normal functioning of the credit markets.” Recapitalizing banks is not without its risks, experts warned, pointing to the example of Britain, which announced its program last week and injected its first capital into three banks on Monday. Shares of the newly nationalized banks — Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS and Lloyds — slumped on Monday, despite a surge in banks elsewhere, because shareholder value was diluted by the government. The move, analysts said, makes the government Britain’s biggest banker. And it creates a two-tier banking system in which the nationalized banks are run like utilities and others are free to pursue profit growth. As part of the plan, the chief executives of the three banks stepped down. Still, Mr. Paulson’s strategy was backed by lawmakers, including Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, who said he preferred capital injections to buying distressed mortgage-related assets — a proposal that Treasury pushed aggressively before its turnabout. In a letter to Mr. Paulson on Monday, Mr. Schumer, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, urged the Treasury to demand that banks receiving capital eliminate their dividends, restrict executive pay and stick to “safe and sustainable, rather than exotic, financial activities.” (Page 3 of 3)     “I don’t think making this as easy as possible for the financial institutions is the way to go,” Mr. Schumer said in a call with reporters. “You need some carrots but you also need some sticks.”
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Brendan Smialowski for The New York Times

John Thain of Merrill Lynch.

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But officials said the banks would not be required to eliminate dividends, nor would the chief executives be asked to resign. They will, however, be held to strict restrictions on compensation, including a prohibition on golden parachutes and requirements to return any improper bonuses. Those rules were also part of the $700 billion bailout law passed by Congress. The nine chief executives met in a conference room outside Mr. Paulson’s ornate office, people briefed on the meeting said. They were seated across the table from Mr. Paulson; Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve; Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Governor Kevin M. Warsh; the chairman of the F.D.I.C., Sheila C. Bair; and the comptroller of the currency, John C. Dugan. Among the bankers attending were Kenneth D. Lewis of Bank of America, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, Lloyd C. Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, John J. Mack of Morgan Stanley, Vikram S. Pandit of Citigroup, Robert Kelly of Bank of New York Mellon and John A. Thain of Merrill Lynch. Bringing together all nine executives and directing them to participate was a way to avoid stigmatizing any one bank that chose to accept the government investment. The preferred stock that each bank will have to issue will pay special dividends, at a 5 percent interest rate that will be increased to 9 percent after five years. The government will also receive warrants worth 15 percent of the face value of the preferred stock. For instance, if the government makes a $10 billion investment, then the government will receive $1.5 billion in warrants. If the stock goes up, taxpayers will share the benefits. If the stock goes down, the warrants will be worthless. As Treasury embarked on its recapitalization plan, it offered some details on the nuts-and-bolts of the broader bailout effort. The program’s interim head, Neel T. Kashkari, said Treasury had filled several senior posts and selected the Wall Street firm Simpson Thacher as a legal adviser. It named an investment management consultant, Ennis Knupp, based in Chicago, to help it select asset management firms to buy distressed bank assets. And it plans to announce the firm that will serve as the program’s prime contractor, running auctions and holding assets, within the next day. “We are working around the clock to make it happen,” said Mr. Kashkari, a former Goldman Sachs banker who has been entrusted with the job of building this operation within weeks. As details of the American recapitalization plan emerged, fears grew over the impact on smaller countries. Iceland is discussing an aid package with the International Monetary Fund, a week after Reykjavik seized its three largest banks and shut down its stock market. The fund also offered “technical and financial” aid to Hungary, which last week suffered a run on its currency. Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany said the country would accept aid only as a last resort. In a new report on capital flows, the Institute of International Finance projected that net capital in-flows to emerging markets would decline sharply, to $560 billion in 2009, from $900 billion last year. In Asia, markets continued to rise on Tuesday, lifted further by the announcement that the Japanese government would inject 1 trillion yen ($9.7 billion) into the financial system.
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For Treasury Dept., Now Comes Hard Part of Bailout

Saturday, October 4th, 2008
For Treasury Dept., Now Comes Hard Part of Bailout
Brendan Smialowski/Getty Images

Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, engineered the bailout plan, which officials said would have a policy on conflicts of interest as well as guidelines on compensation.


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Published: October 3, 2008
WASHINGTON — It will be one of the world’s largest asset management firms with an impressive $700 billion war chest. Nothing short of the global economy depends on its success. And the Treasury Department has barely a month to get it up and running.
Skip to next paragraph The bailout bill that President Bush quickly signed into law on Friday must do what financial experts have been unable to do for the last year — put a dollar value on mortgage-related assets that no one wants, move them off the books of ailing banks and unlock the frozen credit markets. In signing the measure, Mr. Bush warned Americans not to expect instant results. “This will be done as expeditiously as possible, but it cannot be accomplished overnight. We’ll take the time necessary to design an effective program that achieves its objectives — and does not waste taxpayer dollars.” Even after working feverishly over the last two weeks, the Treasury will not buy its first distressed asset from a bank for roughly six weeks, and almost certainly not until after the Nov. 4 elections. Treasury officials do not plan to manage the mortgage assets on their own. Instead, they will outsource nearly all of the work to professionals, who will oversee huge portfolios of bonds and other securities for a management fee. The Treasury is expected to name a senior official to supervise the program. For now, various working groups creating the program are reporting directly to Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary. Mr. Paulson has recruited several former colleagues from Goldman Sachs to advise him, though administration officials took pains to say that they were not dominating the process, pointing to other Treasury employees who were playing major roles. “We will move rapidly to implement the new authorities, but we will also move methodically,” Mr. Paulson said in a statement after the House passed the bill on Friday. The government will hire only a bare-bones internal staff of about two dozen people with expertise in asset management, accounting and legal issues, according to administration officials, and will outsource the bulk of the program to 5 to 10 asset management firms. Administration officials said they had not yet selected the list of firms to run auctions or manage the assets. During the last few weeks, the Treasury has informally consulted major firms — including BlackRock, the Pacific Investment Management Company and Legg Mason — but none have been given a mandate, they said. The selected asset management firms will receive a chunk of the $250 billion that Congress is allowing the Treasury to spend in the first phase of the bailout. Those firms will receive fees that are likely to be lower than the industry standard of 1 percent of assets, or $1 for every $100 under management. Administration officials said they would try to drive down fees with a competitive bidding process. But with $700 billion to disburse, the plan could still generate tens of billions of dollars in fees if the firms negotiate anywhere close to their standard fees. The main mechanism for buying these assets will be reverse auctions, using the same principles that govern auctions of electricity or the wireless spectrum. In this case, the government will issue an offer to buy a class of assets — for example, subprime mortgage-backed securities — with the final price being determined by how many banks are willing to sell. Using outside contractors on such an extensive scale raises a host of thorny questions, outside experts said. Among the most pressing is: How will the Treasury avoid conflicts of interest that fund managers will encounter as they work both for their own clients’ interests — which could pay higher fees — and the interests of taxpayers? “With anyone short of the stature and honesty of a Paul Volcker running it, you need to worry a lot about conflicts of interest,” said Alan S. Blinder, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, referring to its former head. “Unfortunately, there just aren’t many people with the expertise you need but without any possible conflicts.” The Treasury officials said they were still writing a policy on conflicts of interest as well as guidelines on compensation. As if the mechanics were not daunting enough, Treasury officials need to make wrenching decisions that will determine the bailout’s winners and losers. With so much money on the line, lobbyists for interest groups are already besieging the government to decide in their favor. The prospect of pitching in during a national crisis has drawn unsolicited offers from prominent asset managers, like William H. Gross, the managing director of Pimco, who offered his services free. In setting up the program, Mr. Paulson has relied on a cadre of former Goldman Sachs executives: Edward C. Forst, a former co-head of Goldman’s investment management business who is on leave from his job as executive vice president at Harvard; Kendrick R. Wilson III, formerly chairman of Goldman’s financial institutions groups; and Dan Jester, who was deputy chief financial officer at Goldman. (Page 2 of 2)     But administration officials said several other Treasury officials were playing crucial roles, including six assistant secretaries: Peter B. McCarthy, Phillip L. Swagel, Neel Kashkari, Kenneth E. Carfine, David G. Nason and Kevin I. Fromer, who led the Treasury’s negotiating team on Capitol Hill.
Skip to next paragraph Mr. Forst is expected to soon return to Harvard, where he helps manage its endowment fund. And with a change in administrations looming, many of the people involved in organizing the program will not be around to manage it. Still, the Treasury may not have trouble recruiting replacements, given the job losses that have plagued the finance industry. “There are a lot of people, because of the downsizing of Wall Street, who won’t be getting a paycheck at all,” said Joshua S. Siegel, the managing principal of Stone Capital Partners, a fund that manages $2.2 billion. “They would love to be involved.” Of all the challenges that the Treasury faces, the trickiest might be determining a price for the largely unwanted wreckage it will be buying. Many of the junk loans and mortgage-backed securities have no market price at all because they have no potential buyers. The firms hired by the government will have enormous power to push the “market” price up or down as they choose. If the government bargains to buy at the lowest possible price, it will protect taxpayers. But forcing the banks to book big losses could be self-defeating if they cannot resume lending until they raise fresh capital. If the government agrees to buy the assets at the value at which banks are keeping them on their balance sheets, taxpayers will almost certainly be overpaying. The “right” price will depend on whether the government is favoring buyers or sellers. Many banks are hoping that the government will pay close to par — the value listed in their books. But hedge fund managers and other potential buyers are demanding that the government push for the much lower price, based on the current trading value of the assets. These potential buyers are hoping they can piggyback onto the Treasury program, perhaps even acquiring distressed assets alongside the Treasury in auctions. There are similar debates over how the Treasury should organize the plan. Most financial experts agree it would be impossible to build an internal operation of this size in a few weeks. “It’s essential they outsource almost everything possible,” said T. Timothy Ryan Jr., president of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. “The one thing they can’t outsource is the final decision, and they can’t outsource the infrastructure — people, hiring policies, contracting rules. But they can hire people to do everything else.” Mr. Ryan is a former director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, where he played a key role in the savings and loan cleanup. Still, some investors are troubled by the government’s heavy reliance on private firms. They said it would be difficult to prevent firms from steering capital in ways that favor their private customers. Inevitably, large asset management firms own, or are tied to banks that own, some of the same securities the government is seeking to sell. Pimco, for example, is owned by Allianz, one of Germany’s largest insurance companies. Merrill Lynch owns a stake in BlackRock. “I can’t even fathom how I would manage that,” Mr. Siegel said. “How would I manage one side, where I’m seeking to maximize profit, and the other side, where I’m looking out for the social good?” The law stipulates that the government must prevent conflicts of interest in the hiring of firms, the decision of which assets to buy, the management of those assets and even the jobs held by employees after they leave the program. But it leaves the details to the Treasury. The Treasury plans to publish guidelines for hiring the asset management firms in the next day or two, officials said. Some experts say that the department simply needs to gird itself for protests. “You’re never going to get past conflicts of interest, so you take your lumps,” said Peter J. Wallison, who was general counsel of the Treasury during the Reagan administration. The bailout legislation itself highlights the contradictory goals that the Treasury will face when it goes on its buying spree. Among the goals it is supposed to consider are “protecting taxpayers,” “preventing disruption to financial markets” and “the need to help families keep their homes.” Democratic lawmakers insisted that the Treasury use its authority to help restructure many subprime mortgages so that at least some troubled homeowners could avoid foreclosure. But the Treasury’s auction plan will make that difficult. More than 90 percent of all subprime mortgages are part of giant pools, or trusts, which sell mortgage-backed securities to investors around the world. Before the government would be able to modify any mortgage that was in a trust, securities experts said, it would have to acquire agreement from 100 percent of the bondholders. But a senior Treasury official said the government would probably want to buy no more than half of the securities tied to a trust, which would hamper winning agreement from all investors. Treasury officials have emphasized that the government will also be buying up whole mortgages, which have not been securitized, and that it may well buy whole mortgages through one-on-one negotiations with individual banks. Officials said they would probably experiment with other approaches as well.
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